Sunday, April 27, 2008

The Obama Dilemma

I knew it would be a problem. After reading The Audacity of Hope, I knew I wanted to see Barack Obama in the Oval Office. His approach to evaluating both conservative and liberal sides of an issue in search of a workable solution is, in my opinion, clearly needed.

Idealogical administrations can not govern successfully because they see the world as they want it to be rather than how it is. Even Newt Gingrich says, "I don't think either party can force a narrowly partisan set of solutions" (Time Magazine May 5, 2008).

I ache to have an administration that proposes workable solutions to the big issues facing us. Yet I do not see how a compromising approach, desirable in a president, can be successful in a presidential election culture that does not work that way. That is the problem for Barack Obama.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The Second Amendment

As the title of my blog suggests, I wobble between conservative and liberal views looking for what makes sense. And the case that came before the Supreme Court today is a perfect study in looking at both sides of the story.

In the interest of full disclosure, it should be known that I tend to be on the left of center politically so my conservative friends might assume that I want the government to strip us of our weapons. I do not feel that way. While I currently own no guns I have owned guns in the past and I do not have a problem with those who want to own guns for personal protection, hunting, or collecting.

The case before the Supreme Court was brought by plaintiffs who assert that the District of Columbia law that forbids the ownership of handguns violates the second amendment to the Constitution of the United States. If that is as far as it went, I would not much care since I feel that, for example, a shotgun would be more of a deterrent in the home than a handgun. The DC law further says that you can own long guns but they must have a trigger lock installed or must be disassembled. I feel the DC law overreaches in this case since a gun in such a state would be ineffective for personal protection (perhaps one could leave the key in the trigger lock!). In other words, I agree with the plaintiffs that the law is unconstitutional.

But wait, there’s more. I think this is the most interesting case to come before the high court in recent memory. Conservatives have been fond of criticizing the courts for “legislating from the bench”; they favor strict constructionist justices who would strive to interpret the Constitution as the framers would have interpreted it. If one reads the second amendment as a strict constructionist it seems one would have to say that it deals with the necessity for members of a state militia to keep their weapons at home so that they are available when needed. Even though the Court is quite conservative, I do not believe they would find that the right to bear arms refers only to arming militias.

The tradition that there is an “individual” right to bear arms has been part of our culture since the beginning and I do not expect it to change nor would I like it to change. The final decision on this case will probably come down to issues of how much the state can regulate gun ownership (no automatic weapons, etc.) rather than delving into the basic “militia” vs. “individual” constitutional issues but I expect these core issues will be discussed during the arguments before the Court.

For the interested reader, here is the 75-page finding (the DC law is unconstitutional) of the appeals court last year on this matter.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Election 2008 - Is He 'Cocky'?

It has been said that John McCain tends to verbally spout off when he is riding high which can hurt his standing . His staff tries to keep him focused. He may not be the only one.

I was surprised yesterday when my step-son-in-law suggested that Barack Obama was getting cocky. Later that same day I heard parts of his talk at the T.C. Williams High School in Alexandria, VA in preparation for the Virginia primary. He stated that, as president, he would end the Iraq war in 2009. That sounded unrealistic to me. I doubt very much that he would do that if he was President. Time will tell.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Election 2008 - Romney Quits

Mitt Romney withdrew from the race to be the Republican nominee for President of the United States today. His father, George Romney, withdrew from his race for the same nomination nearly 40 years ago on February 28, 1968.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Election 2008 - Super Tuesday

Alabama primaries
Democrats
Obama......56%
Clinton....42%


Republicans
Huckabee...41%
McCain.....37%
Romney.....18%


Alaska caucuses
Republicans
Romney.....44%
Huckabee...22%
McCain.....15%


Democrats
Obama......75%
Clinton....25%


Arizona primaries
Democrats
Clinton....51%
Obama......42
%

Republicans
McCain.....48%
Romney.....34%
Huckabee...09%

Arkansas primaries
Republicans
Huckabee...60%
McCain.....20%
Romney.....14%

Democrats
Clinton....70%
Obama......27%


California primaries
Democrats
Clinton....52%
Obama......42%


Republicans
McCain.....42%
Romney.....34%
Huckabee...12%

Colorado caucuses
Republicans
Romney.....60%
McCain.....19%
Huckabee...13%

Democrats
Obama......67%
Clinton....32%


Connecticut primaries
Democrats
Obama......51%
Clinton....47%


Republicans
McCain.....52%
Romney.....33%
Huckabee...07%

Delaware primaries
Republicans
McCain.....45%
Romney.....33%
Huckabee...15%


Democrats
Obama......53%
Clinton....43%


Georgia primaries
Democrats
Obama......67%
Clinton....31%


Republicans
Huckabee...34%
McCain.....32%
Romney.....30%

Idaho caucuses (D)
Democrats Only
Obama......79%
Clinton....17%


Illinois primaries
Democrats
Obama......65%
Clinton....33%

Republicans
McCain.....47%
Romney.....29%
Huckabee...17%

Kansas caucuses (D)
Democrats Only
Obama......74%
Clinton....26%


Massachusetts primaries
Democrats
Clinton....56%
Obama......41%

Republicans
Romney.....51%
McCain.....41%
Huckabee...04%


Minnesota primaries
Republicans
Romney.....41%
McCain.....22%
Huckabee...20%

Democrats
Obama......67%
Clinton....32%

Missouri primaries
Democrats
Obama......49%
Clinton....48%

Republicans
McCain.....33%
Huckabee...32%
Romney.....29%

Montana caucuses (R)
Republicans Only
Romney.....38%
Paul.......25%
McCain.....22%
Huckabee...15%

New Jersey primaries
Democrats
Clinton....54%
Obama......44%

Republicans
McCain.....55%
Romney.....28%
Huckabee...08%


New Mexico primary (D)
Democrats Only
Clinton....49%

Obama......48%

New York primaries
Democrats
Clinton....57%
Obama......40%

Republicans
McCain.....51%
Romney.....28%
Huckabee...11%

North Dakota caucuses
Republicans
Romney.....36%
McCain.....23%
Paul.......21%
Huckabee...20%

Democrats
Obama......61%
Clinton....37%

Oklahoma primaries
Democrats
Obama......31%
Clinton....55%

Republicans
McCain.....37%
Huckabee...33%
Romney.....25%

Tennessee primaries
Republicans
Huckabee...34%
McCain.....32%
Romney.....24%

Democrats
Clinton....54%
Obama......41%

Utah primaries
Democrats
Obama......57%
Clinton....39%

Republicans
Romney.....90%
McCain.....05%
Paul.......03%
Huckabee...02%

West Virginia convention (R)
Republicans Only
Huckabee...52%
Romney.....47%
McCain.....01%

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Are We Losing in Afghanistan? -- II

I have completed reading Imperial Hubris by Michael Scheuer so here is my book report. Some of Scheuer’s main points are discussed below.

Americans have a tendency to redefine those from other cultures in terms we can understand. This is understandable but may be leading us astray. When we have an enemy like bin Laden and we redefine him in a way that makes us feel better—“lunatic”, “fanatic”, etc.—we are missing an important opportunity to know our enemy. Scheuer argues that we miss the fact that he is widely accepted and respected in the Muslim world for various reasons including his piety. His statements ring true to many, many Muslims. We do not have to understand and agree with this from the standpoint of our culture but dismissing the reality of how his culture works puts us at peril.

Afghans do not accept foreign occupiers on their soil. History shows that Afghanistan has been the downfall of any invader. The British were defeated 3 times (1838, 1878, and 1919) during their “Great Game” with Russia for regional dominance. This point leads to the next:

We do not have a chance of winning in Afghanistan. The latest edition of Newsweek has headlines like “As Karzai Looses his Grip…”, and “A Picture of Gloom”. Other media sources paint a similar picture. Whether or not Scheuer is correct—and I am inclined to agree with him because of the British and Soviet experience—it will be interesting to watch how the drama plays out. If we prevail in Afghanistan we may be the first in history to do so.

Everyone in the world does not want to be like us. Scheuer quotes Joshua Mitchell writing in the Washington Post August 10, 2003: “Freedom is neither a spontaneous nor a universal aspiration. Other goods captivate the minds of other people from other lands, order, honor, and tribal loyalties being the most obvious”. And this leads to the next…

Our idealistic drive to impose democracy on those who do not want it wastes our treasure, our lives, and our credibility. The idea that after centuries (actually from 1215 and the Magna Carta) of developing our system we can install instant democracy in places where there is no framework for it is truly ludicrous.

Labeling bin Laden et al. as terrorists misses the fact that their training camps trained insurgents first and terrorists second. Those insurgents went back to their home states and were able to be more effective fighting against those governments and us. The author fears we are not waging an effective response if we do not realize we are fighting a global insurgency. He says that “stepping back from the victim’s perspective, accepting the need for this semantic change, and then making it, could ensure wide recognition that America is at war with a faith-driven force that dwarfs anything that can, with intellectual honesty, be called terrorism.”

Scheuer has harsh criticism of our desires to fight a “dainty” war. We don’t want to hurt too many of the enemy and we certainly don’t want to lose many of our own so we fight half wars that leaves the issue smoldering to re-ignite at a later time. He argues convincingly that we will not get the job done this way and quotes Lincoln’s displeasure with McClellan’s reticence to fight. He also includes a quote from General W.T. Sherman (1875), “Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster”.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Election 2008 - Florida

Florida is in a similar fix to Michigan. Its Democratic delegates have been stripped to zero and the Republicans have seen their delegates halved. So while I have listed the Democrats' results, below, time will tell whether their delegates will be seated at the convention.

Republicans:
McCain.....36%
Romney.....31%
Giuliani...15%
Huckabee...14%

Democrats:
Clinton....50%
Obama......33%
Edwards....14%


Note added 1/31/2008: Giuliani withdrew and backed McCain. Edwards withdrew and did not initially support any candidate.